A Look at the Cost of Money, Not Home Prices

When people talk about the “cost of waiting” to buy a home, the conversation usually goes straight to appreciation. Will prices go up? Will they come down?

That debate misses the point.

For many buyers in Las Vegas — especially in higher-end areas like Summerlin — the real cost of waiting has far less to do with home values and far more to do with the cost of money. Interest rates, lost deductions, delayed equity, and rent paid while waiting are all measurable. Home prices are not.

This breakdown focuses only on what we can quantify.

Assumptions Used for This Analysis

To keep the numbers clean and comparable, we’re using the following:

• Mortgage amount: $600,000

• Loan type: 30-year fixed, conventional

• Payments shown: Principal & Interest only

• Excluded: Property taxes, insurance, HOA
  (These vary widely across Las Vegas and Summerlin by neighborhood, home age, and value.)

Buying Today: Current Mortgage Reality

As of February 9, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.16%, based on national survey data from Freddie Mac.

Monthly Principal & Interest at 6.16%

• ≈ $3,660 per month

This is the baseline cost of funds if you buy now in today’s Las Vegas market.

Waiting 6–12 Months: What Credible Forecasts Say

Mortgage rates are difficult to predict, but when you aggregate projections from major financial institutions and economists, expectations are fairly tight.

Sources such as Bankrate and Mortgage Bankers Association show consensus around:

• Rates staying in the low-to-mid 6% range

• No dramatic drop expected without a major economic shift

Composite expectation for the next 6–12 months:

≈ 6.1%

Monthly P&I at 6.1%

• ≈ $3,630 per month

Difference from buying today:

• Monthly savings: ≈ $30

• Annual savings: ≈ $360

This is where many buyers recalibrate expectations. Even with rates improving modestly, the payment change is small.

A True Best-Case Scenario (Very Unlikely)

Let’s assume something better than what most forecasters expect.

What if rates fall to 5.75%?

This would require:

• Faster inflation improvement

• Multiple Fed cuts

• A strong bond market response

Most national forecasts do not expect this within a year, but let’s run it anyway.

Monthly P&I at 5.75%

• ≈ $3,510 per month

Difference vs. buying today:

• Monthly savings: ≈ $150

• Annual savings: ≈ $1,800

Even in an aggressive best-case scenario, the savings are meaningful — but far smaller than most buyers assume when they say they’re “waiting for rates to drop.”

Principal Paid While Waiting vs. Buying

Early mortgage payments are interest-heavy regardless of rate.

If you buy today at 6.16%:

• Principal paid down in the first 12 months:
  ≈ $8,000–$9,000

Waiting delays that equity accumulation entirely. You don’t avoid interest — you just shift when you start paying it.

The Rent Trade-Off in Las Vegas

In many Summerlin and West Las Vegas neighborhoods, rent for comparable homes often aligns closely with mortgage P&I.

Assumed rent:

• ≈ $3,600–$3,700 per month

• ≈ $43,000–$44,000 per year

• Equity gained: $0

This is a pure opportunity cost. Rent replaces ownership without reducing future borrowing or improving long-term leverage.

The Overlooked Cost: Delayed Tax Benefits

This is where waiting often gets ignored in financial comparisons.

When you buy, a portion of your payment goes toward mortgage interest, which is generally deductible if you itemize, subject to IRS rules.

• That deduction starts only once you own

• Waiting delays that benefit, even if your future payment is slightly lower

For higher-income buyers in Las Vegas and Summerlin, this can materially offset part of the interest expense. According to guidance from the Internal Revenue Service, mortgage interest deductions can meaningfully reduce after-tax borrowing costs.

So the trade-off becomes:

• Slightly lower payment later

• Versus earlier deductions and equity now

That delay has a real cost, even if it doesn’t show up in the monthly payment.

What This Means for Las Vegas Buyers

• Rate drops are likely to be modest, not dramatic.

• Even best-case scenarios don’t radically change affordability.

• Waiting delays equity, deductions, and ownership leverage.

• Renting fills the gap with expense, not progress.

This isn’t about rushing. It’s about understanding what waiting actually changes — and what it doesn’t.

Take Charge

Want to see what homes you can purchase in Las Vegas or Summerlin with a $600,000 mortgage, assuming a normal down payment (5–20%)?

Connect with us. We’ll walk through real options, real numbers, and what makes sense for your situation — without pressure.