UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) now forecasts that Clark County will add about 204,000 residents from 2026 to 2036, down from about 347,000 in last year’s forecast for the same period. For Las Vegas home buyers and sellers, that points to a market where population growth alone may not carry prices, which makes pricing, condition and timing matter more. It is a long-range planning forecast, not a prediction for next month’s closings.
What did the UNLV forecast actually say?
CBER released its updated population forecast on July 22, 2026. The headline numbers:
| Measure | Updated CBER forecast |
|---|---|
| Added residents, 2026 to 2036 | About 204,000 (last year’s forecast: about 347,000) |
| Annual growth rate | From 1.6% in 2026 to about 0.6% in 2029 |
| Year when Clark County reaches 3 million | 2055 (last year’s forecast: 2045) |
| New jobs added | About 17,000 in 2026, 20,000 in 2027, about 117,000 from 2026 to 2036 |
| Natural population change | Projected to turn negative around 2032 |
Source: UNLV News Center release on the CBER population forecast, July 22, 2026. CBER director Andrew Woods said policymakers, businesses and community leaders should prepare for a world where population growth is not a given.
Does slower population growth mean Las Vegas home prices will fall?
Not by itself. The forecast still has Clark County adding residents every year and adding jobs, so it describes slower growth, not shrinking demand. Home prices depend on mortgage rates, inventory, construction pace and incomes as well as headcount. What the forecast does change is the assumption many sellers and investors have carried for years, which is that new people will arrive fast enough to absorb whatever is listed. I would treat that assumption with more caution than I did five years ago.
What does this mean for a Las Vegas buyer?
- Do not pay a growth premium on faith. If a price is justified only by the idea that demand will keep rising, ask for the comparable sales that support it.
- Inventory matters more than headlines. I covered new-construction supply in what the Census new-home sales data means for Las Vegas buyers. Builders carrying inventory can create negotiating room.
- Think about holding period. If you plan to stay a long time, a 10-year forecast is less important than your monthly cost. Run the numbers in our renting vs. buying breakeven math.
What does this mean for a Las Vegas seller?
- Price to the evidence. A slower-growth forecast is one more reason to anchor your list price to recent closed sales, not to what a neighbor hoped to get.
- Presentation counts. When buyers have options, condition and staging separate the homes that sell from the ones that sit.
- Know your alternatives. New homes compete with resale, so see how the two compare in our guide to resale vs. new construction in Summerlin.
What should I watch next?
CBER describes the numbers as a long-range planning tool. The practical data to follow is local: active inventory, days on market, and how many sales are closing near list price in your price band. That is what I track for clients week to week. No forecast guarantees an outcome, and your results will depend on your property, your price and current conditions.
If you are thinking about buying or selling in the next year and want a plain-English read on your neighborhood, reach out. No pressure, just a conversation.
Geoff Zahler | Broker/Owner, Zahler Properties