The chart shows 2020 and with GDP, as estimated by four of the largest Investment Banks in the United States; Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. Looking at the chart, we are actually showing a NEGATIVE GDP for Q1, mostly because of the very weak March. From there, we will see an UGLY plummet in Quarter 2. In fact, both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs anticipate the biggest decline in the history of calculating GDP for a quarter. I know it’s scary, and never looks good to look at. But let’s face the facts. The country for the most part has shut down. Spending is decreased. It’s simple math.

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If you look at the data attached above, we have the Current Crisis compared to the Great Depression of 1930-1935, and the Great Recession of 2008-2013. Two things to note. The first is that I have been saying in almost every post, that this is not like the last time. Indeed, it’s not.

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Back in 2005-2007, leading up to the crash, there was a total of $824 Billion (that’s $824,000,000,000) that was cashed out with Cash out Refinances in the United States. By comparison (and that’s what this post is about), The three year period we just had, 2017-2019, only saw a total of $232 Billion ($232,000,000,000)! That’s a SIGNIFICANT difference.

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With the 3% cap rate, the taxes can only go as high as $2,060 for this year. A 4.8% increase would raise your rate to $2,096, an extra $36. While it’s not a huge amount, no one wants to pay more than they need.

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The market has absolutely adjusted to what we have expected. March was a very strong month, both for closed sales and sales that went pending. However, many of the sales that closed in March were put into contract in February or January, with just a small percentage that were probably put into contract (Pending) in March with a March close.

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If you’re like me, you’ve probably played this game, or a similar one…. “What would I change about my house if I had a good sized (or unlimited budget).” If you haven’t played the game, give it a try, it’s fun, and can be engaging, especially if you have a significant other to bounce ideas off.

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I think we are going to land somewhere in the middle. It would be a mistake for me to pretend we won’t see a market shift, but I tend to think it won’t be the doom and gloom we had a decade ago. Whether it’s Financing differences, affordability differences, or in the case I’m making today - Inventory differences, this market certainly does not look exactly like it did before.

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The bank is not forgiving payments or forgetting payments. They’re going to figure out what they are delaying the payment on, and then tack it on, either in a lump sum (OUCH) or divided evenly over a year or so. But This math on this example provides a perfect example of how this can be a slippery slope and dangerous.

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If you took a poll of 100 people about what will happen with the Real Estate Market, we would have a pretty equal divide; those that think we are going to be okay or see a small retraction in values, and those that think we will PLUMMET. I’m part of the former; a small correction may be in our midst, but we will get back on track. I

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We officially set the all-time high for Median Sales price in March. Single Family Homes finished March at $319,000, up 6.3% from March of last year, and up 4.6% from the beginning of the year! Looking forward, I don’t see April having a DRAMATIC decrease in value, but we will see a swing down in our next statistic, home sales.

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This is why we do what we do. For the Relationships. For the people. For helping change lives. So, when this is all over, Remember those that stood by you, helping you through life’s most amazing, and sometimes, most difficult, decisions. We’re here for you. That’s who we are!

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We are not dealing with another 2007-2012 market. Read more now…

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